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UK economist Louis Kuijs expresses confidence despite ongoing slowdown

China's Purchasing Managers Index, which indicates operational activities in the manufacturing sector, retreated to an eight-month low of 50.2 in February from 50.5 in January. It was weakened by stagnant production during the Chinese New Year holidays, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.

The manufacturing PMI has dropped for three consecutive months. The fresh reading of 50.2 means the sector is still in the expansion interval, but at a slower growth rate. Any reading less than 50 means contraction in the manufacturing industry.

"The easing of the official PMI is reflecting the reality of a modest slowdown in manufacturing growth that we observed at the end of 2013 and that continued into early 2014," said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

A sub-index to indicate the output eased to 52.6 in February from 53 in January; the general new orders dropped to 50.5 from 50.9; and new export orders declined to 48.2, the lowest since June.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior economist at the NBS said that the deterioration of most sub-indexes suggested weakened market demand.

"It is also influenced by the sluggish operational activities during the holidays when manufacturing factories stopped working and the workers went back home," Zhao said.

Kuijs attributed this slowdown to a decline in investment, especially in credit-sensitive infrastructure and real estate, as credit growth has decelerated amid a firmer monetary stance. "And the growth may remain soft in the coming months," he said.

"We will pay attention to how policymakers balance the need to rein in credit growth and the excesses in shadow banking with the desire to keep GDP growth solid."

Earlier, the HSBC bank released the flash reading of February manufacturing PMI, which fell to 48.3 from the final reading of 49.5 in January, lower than the market expectation.

It was the lowest reading since July 2013, and reinforces the trend of softening growth momentum since the fourth quarter of last year.

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase, said that he expected the overall economy to continue on a moderating trend going into the first half this year.

"It reflects the impact of the authorities' efforts to restructure the economy, curbing excess capacity and containing financial risks, as well as the impact of volatility in the domestic financial market in recent months, including the slower credit growth and the upward drift in interbank rates through the second half of 2013," he said.

JPMorgan Chase predicted that Chinese economic growth momentum will ease further to 7.4 percent in 2014, down from 7.7 percent in 2013, with a slowdown in fixed investment that can be attributed to lingering manufacturing overcapacity, tighter local government financing conditions and a slowing in the housing market.

"But there is no need to become overly concerned on growth in China," Kuijs said. "We remain reasonably confident that many of China's domestic growth drivers remain in place, and global demand growth is improving, which helps China's economy.

"The government still has the policy space it needs to ensure its bottom line on growth this year while retaining financial stability."

chenjia1@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily 03/02/2014 page2)