Transcript·文字實錄
馮欣:中國國家副主席習近平于2月13日起程出訪三個國家,首站美國。根據中國外交部和美國白宮的消息,他將要訪問華盛頓、加利福尼亞州等地。他的行程上還有一站:艾奧瓦州,一個不是非常廣為人知的州。
Feng Xin: The Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping set out to visit the United States on Feb 13 on a three-country tour. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the White House, he is going to visit Washington DC, California, and also on his itinerary: Iowa, which probably struggles a little harder for recognition.
多家媒體報道,習近平要到艾奧瓦州一個叫馬斯卡廷的小城,看望一些27年前結交的老朋友。當時,習近平是河北省的一個縣委書記,帶領當地一個畜產業人士代表團訪問艾奧瓦州。但為什么這次他又選擇了艾奧瓦州?這個州有什么特別之處?再往深一步講:中美兩國人民如何看待對方?我今天邀請了三位嘉賓。
And various media reports said he is going to visit some old friends he met 27 years ago in a small town called Muscatine in Iowa. At that time, he was a Hebei provincial party official,leading a delegation of the local feed association to visit Iowa. But why did he pick Iowa this time again? What's special about the state? And to go even further, how do American and Chinese people see each other? I've got three guests today.
馮欣:我很榮幸邀請三位。金燦榮教授,中國人民大學國際關系學院副院長;熊蕾女士,作家,也是前新華社中國特稿社副社長;以及克里斯?克拉克,我的同事、中國日報網主持人,一個在艾奧瓦州生活、學習了四年的人。歡迎你們大家。
Feng Xin: It's my great pleasure inviting all of you. Professor Jin Canrong, associate dean of Renmin University's School of International Relations, and Ms Xiong Lei, author and also the former executive editor of China Features from Xinhua News Agency. And also Chris Clark, my colleague from China Daily Website, anchor,and also someone who has spent four years living and studying in Iowa. Welcome you all.
克里斯,先從你開始。你在艾奧瓦州生活了好幾年,艾奧瓦州是一個什么樣的州?有什么特別的?
Chris, let me start with you. You've spent a good number of years in Iowa. What kind of state is Iowa? What's particular about it?
克里斯:開車開進艾奧瓦州本身就很有趣。大多數時候,當你沿著I-80州際公路開的時候,你可以看見路兩旁都是玉米地。所以艾奧瓦州主要是一個農業大州。在艾奧瓦州生活很愉快,但是很多人可能并沒有意識到這一點。
Chris: Driving into Iowa is an interesting sight. I think most of the time, driving down I-80 (Interstate 80), you see corn fields on both sides. So, a lot of Iowa is about agriculture and agricultural-related business. It's a great state to be a part of that a lot of people may not pay much attention to.
馮欣:對我們這些美國以外的人來說,艾奧瓦州肯定沒有加利福尼亞州或德克薩斯州這么有名。那么美國人自己呢?
Feng Xin: It seems to people who are outside the US, Iowa is certainly not as recognized as states like California or Texas. What about for people in the US?
克里斯:我想艾奧瓦州以外的人,當他們聽到這個州,他們會好玩地看著你說:“艾奧瓦州有什么?”大家覺得艾奧瓦州就是玉米地。但是我認為,艾奧瓦州真正進入公眾視線,是在選舉季節舉行選民小組會議的時候,尤其是趕上每四年一次總統大選的時候。
Chris: I think most people outside of Iowa, when they hear the state or hear something about Iowa, a lot of people will look at you funny and say, "What's in Iowa? What's there?" Everyone thinks it's just corn fields, and that's it. At the same time, I think, when Iowa really comes into the national spotlight is in the political season for the Iowa caucus sat the presidential election every four years.
馮欣:我聽說,艾奧瓦州的選民小組會議在每屆總統大選中都扮演重要的角色,你能不能解釋一下,這個選民小組會議是怎么一回事?
Feng Xin: I heard Iowa plays a quite significant role in every US presidential election because of its caucuses. Can you explain a little bit what caucus is and how it works?
克里斯:艾奧瓦州的大選選民小組會議每四年舉行一次。它是在整個國家大選選舉季節中規模最大、最早的選民小組會議。選民小組會議得出的結果一般能給公眾一個預期,就是誰目前在競選中領先,誰根本就沒有機會獲勝。它不一定是預測總統候選人或總統最準確的晴雨表,但是它收到的媒體關注度,以及它對全國選民選舉意向的影響是不可低估的。
Chris: The Iowa caucus in the presidential election comes around every four years. It is the first and largest caucus of the political presidential election season. So essentially, the results of the Iowa caucus give the public a view of who's in the lead in terms of getting a nomination for presidency early and also who may not have a chance.It's not always the most accurate in terms of whoever wins the Iowa caucus taking the presidency or taking the nomination, but it receives so much media attention that has an influence on voters around the country who are looking at Iowa as a judge as to who they are voting for.
馮欣:好,我們現在對艾奧瓦州有了一點了解,但我們還沒探討為什么習近平副主席這次要去艾奧瓦州。
Feng Xin: I see. Now we know a little bit about Iowa, but we haven't really touched upon the question why the Vice-President Xi Jinping is going to visit Iowa this time.
金燦榮:我覺得重返艾奧瓦州訪問的目的,一是重溫當年的美好回憶,二就是公關,展示中國領導人人性化的一面,就像美國副總統拜登訪華時玩的策略——拜登在北京的鼓樓待了幾小時。
Jin Canrong: I think the purpose to have that trip back to Iowa– one is to revise his good memory of his first trip. Another thing I think is something relating with PR, to show the humane (side) of Chinese leaders, something just like Vice-President Biden played here. Biden spent several hours at Beijing's Gulou, downtown Gulou.
馮欣:炸醬面館。
Feng Xin: A noodle restaurant.
金燦榮:對,面館。
Jin Canrong: Yes, a noodle restaurant.
熊蕾:我不確定習副主席訪問艾奧瓦州是否與這個有關,但是我認為這是艾奧瓦州應得的注意力。我記得在70年代末,由于美籍華人聶華苓的牽線搭橋——當時她是艾奧瓦大學的一名老師,艾奧瓦州創立了第一個中國作家參與的項目,也就是“國際寫作工坊”。幾十位中國作家在艾奧瓦州進修了半年時間,那是兩國之間最早的民間交流項目。
Xiong Lei: I don't know if Vice-President Xi's visit to Iowa will be related to that, but I think Iowa deserves the attention. Because I remember that in the late 1970s, because of a Chinese-American Nie Hualing, who was a teacher at the University of Iowa, Iowa started the first program involving Chinese writers. That is the International Writing Workshop in the university. Dozens of Chinese writers spent a half year in Iowa because of that program. That was one of the first people-oriented, people-to-people exchange program.
馮欣:我們剛剛談到領導人向普通人展現自己平民化的一面。他們為什么需要在一個國家層面的訪問中這樣做呢?
Feng Xin: We talked about showing leaders' personal sides or personal connections to people. Why is there a need for leaders to do that during?a state-level visit?
金燦榮:實際上,習副主席在美國有三站:華盛頓,這是政治、政策為主的一站;然后是艾奧瓦州,美國的心臟地帶,我注意到克里斯用這個詞,心臟地帶,這是真正的美國;然后第三站是洛杉磯,我想這一站主要是經濟主導的。作為普通人,大家肯定會將更多注意力放到第二站。兩個國家,無論這些高級領導人怎樣執政,他們始終得與草根保持聯系。
Jin Canrong: Actually, Vice-President Xi will have three stops in the States. Washington DC is a more political policy-oriented stop. And then Iowa, that's the heartland – I noticed Chris used the term, heartland – that's where the real America is located. Then, his third stop is Los Angeles. I think the third stop will be more economically oriented, trade-oriented. As average people, definitely, people will pay more attention to the second trip. In both countries, no matter how the elites play their prominent role, they have to keep contact, keep in touch with the grassroots.
馮欣:與公眾。
Feng Xin: With the public.
金燦榮:與公眾,否則你的政策設計就會偏離實際或偏離現實。
Jin Canrong: With the public, or your policy design will be out of touch with the fact, out of touch with the reality.
馮欣:也就是說“民意”是這里的關鍵詞?
Feng Xin: So is "public opinion" a keyword here?
金燦榮:從長遠來看,絕對是。我認為民意最基本的作用是劃定一個決策的底線。如果說公眾對一件事有比較統一和堅定的意見,那么決策者在制定政策時就不能跨越那個底線。
Jin Canrong: From a long-term viewpoint, it's definitely very important. I think the basic role is that the public opinion will set the bottom line of your policy. If there exists a solid consensus among the public, then the policy-makers cannot go beyond the bottom line.
馮欣:說到民意,我這里有兩套很有意思的民調數據,由兩個機構收集所得。我跟幾位分享一下。
Feng Xin: Talking about public opinion, I've got a few interesting sets of statistics collected by two polling institutions. Let me share them with you.
去年底,中國日報和零點研究公司合作,在中國的七個主要城市對1464人進行了調查。這些城市大都駐有美國使館或領事館。60%-70%的人說他們有信心,中國會在不久的將來超過美國,成為世界的最大的經濟體。
At the end of last year, China Daily and Horizon Research Group conducted a survey with 1,464 respondents in seven major Chinese cities, most of which host US embassies or consulates. Between 60 and 70 percent of Chinese people said they are confident that China will surpass the US as the world's largest economy in the near future.
90%以上的人認為中美關系重要;三分之二的人認為,美國應為中美兩國存在的問題負主要責任,但是較去年新增了10%的人認為兩國都有責任。
More than 90 percent of Chinese citizens said China-US relations are important. More than?two thirds?of Chinese people said the US bears more responsibilities in problems existing between China and the US. But compared to last year, 10 percent more people said both countries are responsible for problems.
50%的人說,他們對美國有好印象,比2009年減少了15%。受訪者在描述美國國家形象時最常用的五個詞匯是:霸權主義、經濟發達、中美關系、自由民主、以及戰爭軍事。超過70%的人認為美國文化對中國有積極的影響。科技產品、電影、大學和體育最能代表美國的文化。
About 50 percent of Chinese people said they have a good impression of the US, which is 15 percent less than in 2009. Respondents said the top five key phrases that come to mind when describing the United States' national image are: hegemony, developed economy, China-US relations, freedom and democracy, and war and military. More than 70 percent of Chinese people said American culture has a positive influence on China. High-tech products, movies, universities and sports can most represent American culture.
馮欣:這些數字有沒有讓你覺得比較驚訝的?
Feng Xin: Are there any interesting facts or figures that surprise you?
克里斯:讓我一眼就注意到的,是說50%的中國民眾對美國有良好的印象,較2009年減少了15%。我認為這一數據僅憑我們現有的信息來看,很難去評判。
人們可以有各種不同的印象,比如對于政治、經濟、娛樂或者人與人之間的交流、文化等等。所以,說有50%的中國人對美國有一個良好的印象——我覺得這反而提出了更多的問題。因此,我會很想了解這些人是如何形成這種看法的。
Chris: The one that catches my eye is that 50 percent of the Chinese citizens have a good impression of the US, which is 15 percent less than in 2009.I think that's a really hard statistic to judge based on the information that we are given. There are so many different impressions you can have of politics, or business, or entertainment, or just person-to-person communication, your culture. So, to say that 50 percent of Chinese people have a good impression of the US is very – it raises a lot more questions,so?I would be interested to know how these people are forming their opinions.
金燦榮:一百多年前,馬克?吐溫說過世界上有三種東西不能相信:第一是謊言,第二是邪惡的謊言,第三就是數據。
Jin Canrong: A hundred years ago, Mark Twain told us there are three things you cannot believe, one is lying, the second is evil lying, the third is statistics.
馮欣:非常睿智
Feng Xin: Ok, that's very clever.
金燦榮:你可以關注這些民意調查,但是不能讓它們左右了你的判斷,其實應該更多地去關注一些常識性的問題。
Jin Canrong: You can pay some attention to these polls but don't just rely on these polls to make your judgment. Just pay more attention to commonsense issue.
馮欣:比如?
Feng Xin: For example?
金燦榮:比如,美國目前仍是世界上最強大的國家,所以中國要和美國保持一個穩定的關系。
Jin Canrong: For example, the US is still the most powerful country in the world, so China has to make that relationship with the States stable.
熊蕾:那個中國很快就會超越美國成為世界第一大國的問題,我認為這種說法不說毫無根據吧,也很具有欺騙性。因為中國的經濟基礎仍不夠強大,而且人均GDP也非常低,收入差異也很大。所以我們還需要解決很多國內問題才能真正變得經濟強大。
Xiong Lei: That question that China is going to surpass the United States as the?NO 1?world economy anytime soon, I think that kind of statement is, if not nonsense, is quite deceiving. Because China's economic foundation is still not that strong, and the per capita GDP is very low. Disparity of income is quite big. So we have many domestic problems before we can be really economically strong.
馮欣:那么是什么讓人們這么自信,認為中國即將超越美國呢?
Feng Xin: What do you think would make people so confident about surpassing the US, for example?
金燦榮:我認為,很大程度上是因為西方媒體的影響。西方媒體對于中國超越美國日期的預測比中國媒體要多得多,中國媒體沒有這么有信心。你可能注意到了,去年12月《經濟學人》雜志做了一個大膽的預測,說中國將會超越美國;甚至是根據幣值來看,將會發生在2018年,六年以后。在那之前,國際貨幣基金組織也預測中國將在2016年超越美國,但是他們是根據購買力平價來看的。所以很多這類的預測是由西方媒體引入中國的,而并非由中國媒體報道的。
Jin Canrong: I think it's largely because the influence of the Western media. There are more Western media predict(ing)the date China (will) surpass the United States than Chinese media. The Chinese media is not that confident to say that. But, as you may have noticed, December last year, The Economist, they have a bold prediction that China will surpass the US, even according to currency value, in the year of 2018, six years away. And before that, IMF predicted China will surpass the US in 2016.But that's according to PPP, purchasing power parity. So, a lot of these kinds of predictions are imported from Western media into China, not invented by the Chinese media.
馮欣:在美國,從你認識的人來看,他們是怎么樣看待中國以及中國的崛起的?
Feng Xin: Back at home, from people that you know, how do people see China, how do people see China's rise?
克里斯:我認為,你說得對。中國超越美國這種概念,打開電視就能看到。電視新聞的標題中會用到“取代”這個詞,說“中國即將取代美國成為世界第一”等等。我覺得,在很多人看來,這種說法讓他們害怕,覺得受到威脅。同時,這些標題所說的也許就是他們聽說或了解的關于中國的一切。而他們會將這一說法通過微博或者社交網絡再次傳播出去。就想你說的那樣,他們有這種能力去傳播他們的看法,而這種看法也許并不是經過仔細地探究的。
Chris: What I think is that, you are right, the idea of China surpassing the US is what you see when you turn on TV. You see a headline on TV that says and uses the words "take over", "China will take over US", "China will become NO 1". And I think, in a lot of people's viewpoints, that scares them, intimidates them. At the same time, they take just that headline, which is maybe all they've heard or all they know, and then they go on Twitter or social networking. Just like you said, they have the ability to broadcast their opinion which is probably – maybe not so thoroughly researched.
熊蕾:對于我來說,我對于中國的年輕一代更感興趣。我的想法是,中國的年輕一代,尤其是那些80后、90后,他們對于中美兩國關系的處理相對于老一輩的人來說,可能更加自信。因為他們成長在一個相對良好的經濟環境下,鑒于這種自信,他們會有更獨立的思考。
Xiong Lei: To me, I'm more interested in the younger generations. And my impression is that perhaps, especially for the Chinese younger generations who were born after the 1980s and 1990s, could be more confident in handling the relationships between the two countries than the older generations, because they grew up in a stronger economy. With this confidence, they could be more independent of thinking.
馮欣:我們剛才談到零點關于“中國人眼中的美國人”的調查結果,現在來看看蓋洛普的調查結果:美國人眼中的中國人。
Feng Xin: We just talked about how Chinese people see American people by Horizon data. Let's talk about the Gallup data. How do American people see Chinese?
同樣是在2011年年底,中國日報和美國蓋洛普公司進行了一項調查,樣本包括在全美隨機抽樣的2007名普通民眾。42%的受訪者說,他們預期中國將會超越美國成為世界的領導力量。美國人對于中國日益增長的經濟的看法是褒貶各占一半。45%的受訪者認為這是件好事,而48%的受訪者認為這是件壞事。美國人對于中國的看法也是褒貶參半。
Also around late 2011, China Daily and Gallup conducted a survey with a nationally representative sample of 2007 US residents.Forty-two percent of all respondents said they expect China to replace the United States as the world's leading power. Americans are split on the implications of China's burgeoning economy; 45 percent said China's growing economy is a good thing, and 48 percent said it was a bad thing. Americans are nearly split on their overall view of China.
42%的受訪者稱,自己對中國持贊許態度,44%的受訪者表示不喜歡中國,還有12%沒有意見。盡管對中國的好感度褒貶不一,有71%的受訪者認為美國與中國之間的良好關系是重要的。在另一個問題中,81%的受訪者認為中美之間的緊密聯系是一件好事。
Forty-two percent said they have a favorable opinion of China, 44 percent had an unfavorable view, and 12 percent said they don't have an opinion. Despite mixed results on favorability, 71 percent of respondents said strong relations between the United States and China are important. In a separate question, 81 percent of respondents said having a close relationship with China is a "good thing".
馮欣:比較零點和蓋洛普收集的這兩組數據,兩國民眾對對方的印象有沒有不對稱的地方?
Feng Xin: Comparing these two sets of data collected by Horizon and Gallup, is there any dissymmetry between how people see each other?
熊蕾:這種不對稱主要體現在——
Xiong Lei: The dissymmetry you see that more Chinese –
馮欣:中國人喜歡美國人比美國人喜歡中國人多?
Feng Xin: Chinese like Americans more than the other way around?
熊蕾:是的,這是我看到數據之后的印象。
Xiong Lei: Yes, that's my impression.
馮欣:你也有同樣的印象。
Feng Xin: You have the same impression.
熊蕾:但是我認為,美國媒體很大程度上造成了這種誤解。在過去的幾年中,我覺得美國媒體已經有了一些進步,但是,他們仍然持有一種形成定勢的政治概念,這是非常難以改變的,就是“共產黨領導的國家就一定是極權主義的”,這種思維定勢,以及西藏和新疆問題。他們的政治立場就已經固定在那里了。
Xiong Lei: But I think, to me that the US media have played an important role in the misunderstanding. In the past a few years, I think the American media have made some improvements. But still, they have an instilled political conception, which is vary hard to change."The totalitarian, the Communist Party-led country must be totalitarian."And issues like Tibet and Xinjiang, the political position is there.
馮欣:克里斯,你已經來中國很長時間了,你有沒有接觸到過一些中國人對美國人產生的誤解?
Feng Xin: And Chris, so you've lived in China for quite a while, what about some of the conceptions, misconceptions Chinese people have about your people?
克里斯:我來中國一年半了,總是會遇到一些老套的想法或者類似于“你們難道不這樣做嗎”。這樣的問題有些很可笑,有一些確實是如此。
Chris: I've lived in China for?18 months, about a year and a half. There always seems to come some sort of stereotype, or don't-you-guys-do-this sort of question. Some of them are laughable, others are "Yes, we do."
馮欣:你能給我們舉一些例子嗎?
Feng Xin: Can you give us some examples?
克里斯:比如,曾經有人問我是不是吃飯時要喝牛奶。我去吃飯,然后他們就問:“你需不需要一杯牛奶?” 我就說:“不用,謝謝。” 他們就會問:“你們不是吃飯都要喝牛奶的嗎?”然后我就會說:“是啊,但是只是偶爾。” 就是類似這樣的小事。
Chris: For example, I have had people asking me about drinking milk with meals. I will sit down a dinner or lunch, and (they will) say, "Do you want a glass of milk?"And I will say, "No, thank you." And they will say, "Don't you guys drink milk with your meals?"And I will say, "Yes, but not every time."Small things like that.
馮欣:似乎美國民眾對于中國人的看法是非常兩極化的,這些數字有沒有映證了你的經歷呢?
Feng Xin: It seems that American people's perceptions of Chinese are pretty polarized. Do these numbers reflect your experiences?
克里斯:可以這么說,但是我認為許多我聽到的看法是來自于那些知之甚少、不能真正給出看法的人。我覺得我看到的最多的還是來自于美國人民的好奇心。當人們聽說我現在在中國,或者他們談論到中國相關的問題時,體現出的基本上是好奇,他們想了解更多。
Chris: I would say so, although again I would think that a lot of the opinions that I hear are coming from people who don't know enough to form a true opinion. I think really what I see mostly is curiosity coming from American people and my peers. When they hear that I'm living in China or they talk about issues that are related to China, a lot of it is curiosity; they want to know more.
馮欣:金教授,我記得在去年與您的對話中,您對中美關系做了一個非常有趣的比喻,讓我印象非常深刻。您說中國和美國就像一對感情不好的夫婦,但是誰也承受不起離婚。這是什么意思呢?
Feng Xin: Professor Jin, I remember from talking to you last year, you used a very interesting term to describe China-US relations, which made a very deep impression on me. You said China and "the United States are like a couple with bad relations but who can't afford to divorce". And what did you mean by that? Can you (explain)?
金燦榮:你知道,我們一開始建立聯系并不是因為我們彼此相愛,而是因為我們都不喜歡前蘇聯。但是后來我們建立了真正的關系,而且現在兩國之間有一種非常強的互存關系。我們也非常清楚,想要改變任何一方都是不可能的。
Jin Canrong: You know, we get to know each other not because we love each other, but because we hate the third party, the Soviet Union. But then we established some real relationships. And now we have very strong so-called interdependence. And we're also aware it's just impossible to change, to reshape the other side.
馮欣:所以現在情況還是如此。
Feng Xin: So it's still the case today.
金燦榮:是的,但是如果你要去傷害對方的話,你可以找到很多機會。
Jin Canrong: Yes. But if you want to hurt the other side, you can find a lot of opportunities.
馮欣:就像現實生活中的夫妻一樣。
Feng Xin: Just like real-life couples.
金燦榮:是的。
Jin Canrong: Yes.
熊蕾:如果我們將兩國之間的關系比作一對夫妻,那么,、為了維持婚姻,你必須恒久地去培育兩人之間的感情。
Xiong Lei: And also if we compare the relationship of two countries like a couple, to keep a marriage alive, you have to cultivate permanently the relationships between the two spouses.
馮欣:兩國都將進行領導人權力的交接,您對中美兩國關系有何預測呢?
Feng Xin: Both countries are going to have their power transitions. What will be your projections for China-US relations?
金燦榮:根據過去四十年的經驗,每一次美國總統大選,中國都會被影響,成為黨派和政治爭斗的受害者。現在,我們也能看到,有些人在打沖擊中國的牌。從某種程度上來說,中美關系會受到影響,但是從中國這個角度看,我不認為我們的權力交接會對中美關系產生不利的影響。從中國這一方看,我們看到的更多的是延續而不是改變。
Jin Canrong: According to the experiences in the past four decades, each time the US is experiencing a presidential election, China will be back-lashed, become a victim of parties and politics. Now we are watching some people play the card of back-lashing China.To some extent, the US-China relations will get hurt. But on our side, on the Chinese side, I don't think the power transition has a negative impact on US-China relations. We'll see more continuity than change on the Chinese side.
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The Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping set out to visit the United States on Feb 13 on a three-country tour. According to official announcements, Xi's itinerary includes?Washington DC, California and Iowa, a mid-western state, which probably struggles a little harder for recognition. Why did Xi pick Iowa? What's special about this state? And to go even further, how do Chinese and American people see each other? Let's talk to three guests about two polls.
中國國家副主席習近平于2月13日起程出訪三個國家,首站美國。根據官方公告,習的行程包括三站:華盛頓、加州和艾奧瓦州——一個不怎么為人知的美國中西部州。 為什么習近平選擇訪問艾奧瓦?這個州有什么特別的?再往深討論:中美兩國民眾如何看待對方?我們邀請了三位嘉賓,來談談兩組民意調查。