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Will China dominate the world?

( China Daily ) Updated: 2014-01-19 23:20:32

In terms of foreign policy, Hugh White, author of The China Choice: Why We Should Share Power, one of last year's critically acclaimed China books, says China's rise will change the dynamics.

"There is not much doubt that China will quite soon displace the US as the world's richest country and, eventually, in some measure at least, the strongest. But that does not mean the 21st century will be the 'Chinese Century' in the way the 20th century has been the 'American Century'," he says.

"Even as the world's richest country, China will still face many other rich and powerful states around the globe. So rather than dominating, it will be one of a number of great powers whose views must be respected. How that will work is one of the great global questions for coming years."

White, a former adviser to the former Australian prime minister Bob Hawke, says the biggest question is China's role in Asia following recent tensions with Japan.

"China's rise changes Asia's political order fundamentally and ensures China a much bigger role than it has had for the past two centuries. But even in Asia it will face other formidable powers, including Japan, America and India. China will find it hard to dominate Asia in the way that America has done until now "

Mitter, also author of China's War With Japan, 1937-1945: The Struggle for Survival, says China is still mainly concerned with its own backyard rather than attempting to be a global superpower.

"I think a good metaphor is concentric circles. There is no doubt that China will want to play a role in its own region but, as the circles go outwards, its policy becomes less clear."

For Shambaugh, China's diplomacy has shown signs of improving since he wrote China Goes Global, which is set to be published in Chinese this year, with improvements in relations with Southeast Asia and the US.

He maintains, however, that his book was a timely counterpoint to all the books that presented a too-optimistic view of China.

"I recently counted the number of books on my own bookshelf with 'China' and 'rise' in their titles and I have about 25."

He says China still has major challenges if it wants to dominate the century and, in particular, with so-called soft power with few countries in the world wanting to emulate or be like China.

"My findings about China's continuing difficulties in gaining soft power abroad continue. China's continued ambivalence about global governance are also very apparent," he says.

Kerry Brown, executive director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, says he is unconvinced whether the issue of China dominating the world is now the debate to be had.

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